Rob Johnson

Rob Johnson on "The Russian War against Ukraine"

Marking a year since the start of the current Russia assault in Ukraine, Dr Rob Johnson has written an article as part of the University of Oxford’s “Expert Comment” series.

The Russian War against Ukraine: Retrospect and Prospect

Understanding the decision calculus of President Putin that led to his war against Ukraine, and his plans for the next few months and years, is challenging. Yet, to aid us, we can refer to the pattern of his behaviour, the statements he has made, and the sorts of individuals he has surrounded himself with.

The future of war: embrace the new, remember the old - book review by Dr Rob Johnson in Engelsberg Ideas

Dr Rob Johnson has written a review of Mick Ryan’s recent book, War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, that has been published by Engelsberg Ideas.

“There’s no template for modern warfare, but Mick Ryan combines both his professional experience and his extensive historical knowledge to present us with a vision of human unity over technology and argues the case for rapid agility and adaptation in wartime.”

War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict by Mick Ryan. Naval Institute Press, 2022, 312 pages, hardback £41.95.

Rob Johnson publishes article in Parameters

Dr Rob Johnson has had an article published in the US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters.

“Dysfunctional Warfare: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was based on false premises, faulty assumptions, and a weak strategy. The conduct of operations has also been a failure: a coup de main that miscarried, poor air-land cooperation, inadequate tactical communications, substandard battle discipline, low morale, and vulnerable and weak logistics. As the conflict has unfolded, heavy losses have imposed a strain on available Russian manpower. The Russian army reached a culminating point outside Kyiv and has exhibited little sign of operational learning. By contrast Ukrainians have fought an existential war, making good use of dispersed light infantry tactics with high levels of motivation. Their deficiencies in armaments and munitions have been compensated by Western support. However, the political context continues to impose limitations on the Ukrainians, and, at this early stage of the conflict, the number of options remains constrained.

Rob Johnson and Andrew Livsey speaking at Corbett 100 Conference

Dr Rob Johnson, Director of CCW, and Cdr Andrew Livsey, Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and Visiting Research Fellow at CCW, will both be speaking at the Corbett 100 Conference.

The conference is taking place on the 25th and 26th of May 2022 at KCL. It is bringing together scholars, military personnel (serving and retired), and policy makers to mark the centenary of the death of Sir Julian Corbett.

“The conference explores the life of Sir Julian and his scholarship on maritime strategy and naval history. The conference will discuss his enduring relevance to contemporary strategy, strategic studies and defence policy and why he remains one of the ‘great’ strategic theorists amongst contemporaries such as Carl Von Clausewitz.”

Rob Johnson will be speaking on Day 1 on the topic of ‘Soldiers and Maritime Strategy’.

Andrew Livsey will be speaking on Day 2 on the topic of 'The Royal Navy and Corbett 1990-2020’.

See here for the full list of speakers and their topics and here to read more about the Corbett 100 Project.

Rob Johnson quoted in Times article

Dr Rob Johnson has been quoted in a Times article on “Russian arms failings good for British sales.”

Dr Johnson states that the poor performance of Russian military equipment could force other states to re-reassess their defence contracts. In turn, this would give Britain an opportunity to pitch weapons and equipment to states that wanted to replace their Soviet-era equipment. India is a key potential customer.

The article also gives more insight into Dr Johnson’s new role as Director of the Secretary of State’s Office for Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC). The new Office will scrutinise government strategy and provide “independent, impartial analysis for defence chiefs and ministers.” Ben Wallace, defence secretary, said: “Defence leaders must be open to scrutiny and constructive criticism if we are to avoid failure on the battlefield.”

The article can be read here.

Rob Johnson writes article on war and human behaviour

Rob Johnson has written a second essay published by Engelsberg Ideas Notebook. The article is entitled “Human behaviour will still determine who wins wars” and argues that digitalised defence systems and new technology are important, but they do not eliminate the age old realities of warfare.

“Above all, war is more than battles and operations. Regardless of the technology, it is, as Thucydides reminds us, the human aspects that matter most. If the public embrace the desire to fight to survive, are willing to endure and sacrifice, then systems will become less important. Even where superior and overwhelming firepower is employed, if a population refuses to submit, they will endure defeats in battle and keep fighting. Multi-domain integration determines only how to fight; it will not necessarily determine who wins wars.”

Click here to read the essay.

Rob Johnson publishes essay with Engelsberg Ideas on Russian military dysfunction

Ukraine is the latest disaster in a long history of Russian military dysfunction.

The Russian army has had its fair share of military disasters with its most recent in Ukraine being a clear product of a system that refuses to accept the truth and only deals in exercising unlimited power.

—-

This latest essay by Rob Johnson looks at what has gone wrong for the Russian army in Ukraine and the historical roots and patterns of these failures. The essay looks at the potential for a long-term stalemate as seen in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine previously and the historic precedents for high Russian casualties. The essay ends with an assessment that the institutionalised and endemic bullying, corruption, lack of accountability, and unwillingness for self-critique, will offer few opportunities for improving this military dysfunction. However, Russian military failures and ongoing dysfunction should not be viewed with optimism, given the state’s nuclear capabilities and the absolutist outlook of its leader.

You can read the essay here, and many more excellent pieces of work in the Engelsberg Ideas notebook here.

Rob Johnson writes essay on "The Second Phase Of The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine 2022"

Dr Rob Johnson has written a second essay, following on from that published a few weeks ago, on the invasion of Ukraine. The essay looks at the slowing Russian advance, the increasing Russian casualties, and the attacks on Ukrainian civilians. The international response is also assessed, particularly Europe’s difficulty in fully divesting from Russian oil and gas supplies. The essay ends by looking at potential outcomes, including “a new Cold War” and what Russia’s stated objective of ushering in a multipolar world would mean for the international order.

Rob Johnson writes essay on "The First Phase of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022"

Dr Rob Johnson has written an essay examining the the ongoing military invasion of Ukraine. The essay details the build up, Russian plans for the invasion, the first and second operational phases, and the calculations being made by Russia, the West, and China. The essay ends with an assessment of the changing character of the war and how the war might evolve in the coming weeks and months.

An extended analysis of the war by Rob will be published in May by the journal Parameters.

Rob Johnson writes chapter on Technological Determinism

Dr Rob Johnson has written a chapter for Seven Myths of Military History by John D. Hosler. The book is published by Hackett and is currently available in e-book form, with the printed version coming in June 2022.

Dr Johnson’s chapter is entitled: “Technological Determinism: Explaining Success and Failure in War”

"This brief, provocative, and accessible book offers snapshots of seven pernicious myths in military history that have been perpetrated on unsuspecting students, readers, moviegoers, game players, and politicians. It promotes awareness of how myths are created by 'the spurious misuse and ignorance of history' and how misleading ideas about a military problem, as in asymmetric warfare, can lead to misguided solutions. Both scholarly and engaging, this book is an ideal addition to military history and historical methodology courses. In fact, it could be fruitfully used in any course that teaches critical thinking skills, including courses outside the discipline of history. Military history has a broad appeal to students, and there's something here for everyone. From the so-called 'Western Way of War' to its sister-myth, technological determinism, to the 'academic party game' of once-faddish 'Military Revolutions,' the book shows that while myths about history may be fun, myth busting is the most fun of all." -- Reina Pennington, Norwich University

Dr Rob Johnson participates in AIIA Victoria's virtual conference "How Wars End"

The Australian Institute of International Affairs - Victoria has announced their virtual conference on “How Wars End.” The event is hosted by Professor Damien Kingsbury & Richard Iron CMG OBE.

The conference “draws on the direct experience of soldiers and specialist academics (some of whom have been both) who in each case have also been policy advisers on fighting and ending wars.”

The conference was originally planned to be in person in November 2021 but COVID-19 prevented this. The speakers have all pre-recorded their lectures which will be released from 25 January 2022 worldwide.

Dr Rob Johnson’s lecture addresses the typology of war, and how despite the existence of new actors, contexts, technologies, drivers, and other factors, power still remains the unifying element. His lecture comes under the first of the conference’s themes and so can be found in the first of the six recordings to be released.

More information about the conference, tickets, and how to listen to Dr Johnson and others is available on the Australian Institute of International Affairs - Victoria website and the event flyer available here.

Rob Johnson cited in new Parliamentary Report

Director Rob Johnson has been cited in a new Parliamentary Report by the House of Commons Defence Committee. The report is entitled “We’re going to need a bigger Navy” and looks at how the Royal Navy is being tasked with ever more responsibility in this increasingly unstable international security environment. The report hopes to provide a realist assessment of capability against government ambition and looks at the areas in which funding is desperately needed despite defence spending caps.

The report finds that “In short, over the next five years or so, at least until the new classes of surface escorts come on stream, the Royal Navy will be asked to do even more with even less. This is a clear risk, which those beyond these shores can calculate just as readily as we can.” The report goes on to recommend greater funding, stronger domestic shipbuilding capability, collaboration with industry to keep pace with and stay ahead of technological advances, and investment into modernising shipyards.

The report can be read here.

New edited volume from Rob Johnson: The World Information War

A new book edited by Robert Johnson and Tim Clack wil be published on 11 May. “The World Information War: Western Resilience, Campaigning, and Cognitive Effects” is published by Routledge. The book includes a chapter by Dr Johnson on “Information warfare: theory to practice”

This book outlines the threats from information warfare faced by the West and analyses the ways it can defend itself. Existing on a spectrum from communication to indoctrination, information can be used to undermine trust, amplify emotional resonance, and reformulate identities. The West is currently experiencing an information war, and major setbacks have included: ‘fake news’; disinformation campaigns; the manipulation of users of social media; the dissonance of hybrid warfare; and even accusations of ‘state capture’. Nevertheless, the West has begun to comprehend the reality of what is happening, and it is now in a position defend itself. In this volume, scholars, information practitioners, and military professionals define this new war and analyse its shape, scope, and direction. Collectively, they indicate how media policies, including social media, represent a form of information strategy, how information has become the ‘centre of gravity’ of operations, and why the further exploitation of data (by scale and content) by adversaries can be anticipated. For the West, being first with the truth, being skilled in cyber defence, and demonstrating virtuosity in information management are central to resilience and success.

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"Winning Wars" published with chapter from Rob Johnson

In December 2020, the volume Winning Wars was published in the US through Casemate, and it is due to be published in the UK next month. Rob Johnson contributed a chapter: ‘'Winning’' in the World Wars. The British Conception of the War-Time Leaders David Lloyd George and Winston Churchill, 1914–1945 

Former CCW Director, Sir Hew Strachan wrote the introduction.

CCW book shortlisted for British Army Military Book of the Year

“Lawrence of Arabia on War: The Campaign in the Desert 1916-18” by Dr Robert Johnson has been shortlisted for the British Army Military Book of the Year (BAMBY) prize.

BAMBY is a prestigious book prize, judged by a diverse panel of officers and soldiers, representing the very best military books of the previous year. BAMBY is now in its 14th year and previous winners have included the Late Lord Ashdown, Professor Andrew Roberts, and Dr Aimée Fox.

The other books on the shortlist are:

Brig (Ret’d) Ben Barry – Blood, Metal, and Dust: How Victory turned to Defeat in Afghanistan and Iraq

Prof Saul David – Crucible of Hell: Okinawa: The Last Great Battle of the Second World War

James Holland – Sicily ’43 – The First Assault on Fortress Europe 

Professor David Kilcullen – The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West

Professor Margaret MacMillan – War: How Conflict Shaped Us

Dr Julie Wheelwright – Sister’s in Arms: Female Warriors from Antiquity to the New Millenium

‘Once again, seven excellent books have been chosen for this year’s BAMBY and the challenge has been laid before our soldiers to engage with writing on the profession of arms, our people are our key advantage and developing them should be our central goal.’

-WO2 Paul Barnes

New book: Military Strategy in the 21st Century: The Challenge for NATO

Rob Johnson has edited a new volume together with Janne Haaland Matlary. Military Strategy in the 21st Century: The Challenge for NATO was published with Hurst in December 2020.

What is military strategy today? In an era when European states seek to de-escalate and avoid armed conflict, and where politicians fear the consequences of protracted operations or tactical hazards, does military strategy have any relevance?

This is the first volume to examine current military risks and threats for NATO from a military strategy vantage point. Which strategies are needed? Is ways—ends—means thinking possible as a strategic template today? The contributors probe the relative importance, utility and options of military strategy across NATO as it confronts a variety of challenges old and new, as hybrid threats, new nuclear risks and conventional force combine in complex ways. They also examine what military strategy and military integration really mean, when NATO’s multilateral framework is being weakened by degrees of self-interest. They analyse the USA’s political and military role in Europe, and assess military strategic responses to Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Middle East. Moreover, they study the role of member states’ military strategy set against Article 5 and non-Article 5 risks and threats, and explore how European states devise and implement military strategic options. This book makes a clear assessment of political level strategy and its implications for military integration.

A sobering and stimulating set of essays which remind us of the importance of military strategy and the difficulty of getting politicians to think strategically. The authors take aim at some dangerous misconceptions which, unless addressed, will continue to weaken the Western alliance.’ — Christopher Coker, Department of International Relations, London School of Economics, and author of The Improbable War: China, the United States and the Logic of Great Power Conflict

Janne Haaland Matlary is Professor of International Politics at the University of Oslo and the Norwegian Military Command and Staff College; she was formerly Norway's deputy minister of foreign affairs. CCW was pleased to host her as a Visiting Research Fellow.

"Owning the Past" opens at the Ashmolean

A new exhibition open this weekend at the Ashmolean Museum. Dr Rob Johnson was pleased to give significant input to the content of the display.

This dual language (Arabic and English) exhibition highlights the long-lasting impact of the past on the present. It explores how the borders of the state of Iraq were established following the First World War when British control of the region included a fascination with its ancient past - one that led to a colonisation of Mesopotamian antiquity as much as the living communities. It questions what is meant by heritage and introduces voices and stories of people not previously visible in displays devoted to the very histories and heritage of their homelands.

The exhibition opens with a commissioned installation by the artist Piers Secunda. His powerful artwork is created from a reproduction of the Assyrian relief of a bird-headed spirit from Nimrud, Iraq, that now dominates the Museum’s Welcome Space. It acts as a metaphor for the wider destruction of individual and community identities resulting from war, colonialism, oppressive ideologies, and neglect.

The exhibition is free but tickets for General Admission (free) must be booked in advance. Please consider including a donation to the Ashmolean when booking.

Rob Johnson discusses "War in Fact and Fiction" on Radio 3

Dr Rob Johnson joined a discussion on “War in Fact and Fiction” on Radio 3 on the evening of Tuesday 3 November 2020.

From East Africa to Arabia, the First World War to Mozambique, Rana Mitter discusses the impact of war on society and culture. Margaret MacMillan's most recent book is called War: How Conflict Shaped Us and takes a deep dive into the history of conflict. Rob Johnson considers what we gain by exploring the overlooked side of Lawrence of Arabia - his thoughts on warfare and military strategy. And, the end of the Gaza empire, and the clash in East Africa between Belgian, German, British and French forces are explored in novels by Mia Couto and Abdulrazak Gurnah. They compare notes about the way fiction can trace changes in relationships due to war.

 
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