Commander Andrew Livsey publishes article in the Wavell Room

Cdr Andrew Livsey, Royal Navy Hudson Fellow at St Anthony’s and Visiting Research Fellow at CCW, has published an article in the Wavell Room.

The article is titled “The Constant Struggle At Sea: Attacking And Protecting Shipping” and looks at how and why navies act to protect or obstruct shipping every day, even during times of peace. The present situation facing Ukraine, which has been entirely cut off from the seas, is assessed first, followed by the potential situation in a war involving China and Taiwan. The article ends with an analysis of why this aspect of conflict is too often ignored.

The article can be read here.

Rob Johnson quoted in Times article

Dr Rob Johnson has been quoted in a Times article on “Russian arms failings good for British sales.”

Dr Johnson states that the poor performance of Russian military equipment could force other states to re-reassess their defence contracts. In turn, this would give Britain an opportunity to pitch weapons and equipment to states that wanted to replace their Soviet-era equipment. India is a key potential customer.

The article also gives more insight into Dr Johnson’s new role as Director of the Secretary of State’s Office for Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC). The new Office will scrutinise government strategy and provide “independent, impartial analysis for defence chiefs and ministers.” Ben Wallace, defence secretary, said: “Defence leaders must be open to scrutiny and constructive criticism if we are to avoid failure on the battlefield.”

The article can be read here.

Dr Rob Johnson appointed Director of SONAC

CCW is pleased to announce that the Director, Dr Rob Johnson, has been appointed as Director of the Secretary of State for Defence’s Office of Net Assessment and Challenge.

Net assessment was developed in the United States and was associated for decades with Andrew Marshall where it focussed on the relative strengths of competitive powers, but it was in 2018 that the UK Ministry of Defence set up its own experimental Strategic Net Assessment unit. In December 2020, the current Secretary of State, the Rt Hon Ben Wallace, developed the idea with a specific ‘challenge’ function, and the office was more firmly established with the assistance of Air Marshal Edward Stringer who was Director General of the Defence Academy and Joint Force Development. The Integrated Review of 2021 further endorsed the requirement for a SONAC, not only for Defence, but to facilitate cross-government working. One of the tasks of the new organisation is to bring challenging, external voices to bear on strategic thinking and to ‘speak truth to power’. Dr Johnson has been regarded as a ‘critical friend’ of defence personnel for some years, offering robust analyses and hard truths. He has specialised in ensuring that there is a thorough consideration of the perspective of the ‘Other Side of the Hill’, to quote the Duke of Wellington, and he has championed rigorous research in the study of conflict in international relations. He has been a strong advocate of red teaming and policy simulation, to expose the weaknesses in assumptions and approaches, under- and overestimations of competitors, and failures to appreciate valid external perspectives. He will lead the Office of Net Assessment using this experience.

Dr Johnson’s appointment is for 2 years. He will remain a Senior Research Fellow of Pembroke College and Director of CCW.

The Changing Character of War Centre at Pembroke College will continue. Indeed, it will be a vital academic reach-back facility for the SONAC, along with a collection of other research centres across the UK and overseas.

Rob Johnson writes article on war and human behaviour

Rob Johnson has written a second essay published by Engelsberg Ideas Notebook. The article is entitled “Human behaviour will still determine who wins wars” and argues that digitalised defence systems and new technology are important, but they do not eliminate the age old realities of warfare.

“Above all, war is more than battles and operations. Regardless of the technology, it is, as Thucydides reminds us, the human aspects that matter most. If the public embrace the desire to fight to survive, are willing to endure and sacrifice, then systems will become less important. Even where superior and overwhelming firepower is employed, if a population refuses to submit, they will endure defeats in battle and keep fighting. Multi-domain integration determines only how to fight; it will not necessarily determine who wins wars.”

Click here to read the essay.

Iacovos Kareklas - "Thucydides on International Law and Political Theory"

This week, CCW hosted Dr Iacovos Kareklas, a current Visiting Resarch Fellow at CCW, to celebrate his recent book, Thucydides on International Law and Political Theory.

Iacovos spoke on his research for the book and the key conclusions, arguing that even the great powers of the ancient world, namely the Greek city states of Athens and Sparta, did acknowledge early forms of international law and concepts of morality and just war. It is a refreshing and engaging look at at topic which is too often reduced to the concept of the “Thucydides Trap.”

Iacovos’s talk was followed by discussion from Fellows and colleagues from CCW, Pembroke College, and the wider University.

Thucydides on International Law and Political Theory (2020) is published by Lexington Books.

A short description of the book can be read below:

Thucydides on International Law and Political Theory demonstrates that in classical times, especially in the era of the Peloponnesian War, international law and strategy existed in an advanced form among the city-states of ancient Greece. It shows how the work of Thucydides and classical Greek international law and politics have influenced aspects of modern international law and international politics. Iacovos Kareklas extensively analyzes Thucydidean political realism and indicates how it differs from modern realist and neo-realist theories of politics and presents that the “just war” theory of Thucydides’s time formed the legal and political basis of contemporary kinds of military intervention. Further, interstate treaties as listed in the work of Thucydides are categorized, interpreted, and commented upon. The military strategy of classical Greece and the role of religion in foreign policy decision making are also emphasized.

Annual Lecture 2022

Last week CCW hosted our 2022 Annual Lecture. We were delighted to have The Hon George Brandis QC, Australian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, speak on “Indo-Pacific Cohesion: AUKUS and Australian National Security Strategy in the 2020s.”

Mr Brandis, in the last week of his role as High Commissioner, reflected on key moments in his career and his view of the current international security situation. It was a very thoughtful and engaging talk - our thanks again to the High Commissioner.

It was great to see so many there and we enjoyed the occasion to gather together the wider CCW network.

Mr Brandis has had a distinguished career in law and politics in Australia. A barrister by profession, he served as a Senator in the Australian Parliament for 18 years. He was a Minister in the Governments of John Howard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. His ministerial appointments included Minister for the Arts, Attorney-General, Vice-President of the Executive Council and Leader of the Government in the Senate. As Attorney-General, he was responsible for the reform of Australia’s espionage and foreign interference laws, and played a leading role in the introduction of marriage equality in Australia in 2017.

Rob Johnson publishes essay with Engelsberg Ideas on Russian military dysfunction

Ukraine is the latest disaster in a long history of Russian military dysfunction.

The Russian army has had its fair share of military disasters with its most recent in Ukraine being a clear product of a system that refuses to accept the truth and only deals in exercising unlimited power.

—-

This latest essay by Rob Johnson looks at what has gone wrong for the Russian army in Ukraine and the historical roots and patterns of these failures. The essay looks at the potential for a long-term stalemate as seen in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine previously and the historic precedents for high Russian casualties. The essay ends with an assessment that the institutionalised and endemic bullying, corruption, lack of accountability, and unwillingness for self-critique, will offer few opportunities for improving this military dysfunction. However, Russian military failures and ongoing dysfunction should not be viewed with optimism, given the state’s nuclear capabilities and the absolutist outlook of its leader.

You can read the essay here, and many more excellent pieces of work in the Engelsberg Ideas notebook here.

Rob Johnson writes essay on "The Second Phase Of The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine 2022"

Dr Rob Johnson has written a second essay, following on from that published a few weeks ago, on the invasion of Ukraine. The essay looks at the slowing Russian advance, the increasing Russian casualties, and the attacks on Ukrainian civilians. The international response is also assessed, particularly Europe’s difficulty in fully divesting from Russian oil and gas supplies. The essay ends by looking at potential outcomes, including “a new Cold War” and what Russia’s stated objective of ushering in a multipolar world would mean for the international order.

Rob Johnson writes essay on "The First Phase of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022"

Dr Rob Johnson has written an essay examining the the ongoing military invasion of Ukraine. The essay details the build up, Russian plans for the invasion, the first and second operational phases, and the calculations being made by Russia, the West, and China. The essay ends with an assessment of the changing character of the war and how the war might evolve in the coming weeks and months.

An extended analysis of the war by Rob will be published in May by the journal Parameters.

CCW ARRC workshop report

On 9th March, CCW run a workshop for the NATO Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC) focusing on “left of the bang” activities. The workshop examined topics on information, psychological operations, influence, hybrid warfare, special operations and the human domain.

“It is important that we maintain a strong bridge between academia and the military. Academics have the freedom to speak their mind and challenge conventional thinking.”
— Dr Rob Johnson

Rob Johnson writes chapter on Technological Determinism

Dr Rob Johnson has written a chapter for Seven Myths of Military History by John D. Hosler. The book is published by Hackett and is currently available in e-book form, with the printed version coming in June 2022.

Dr Johnson’s chapter is entitled: “Technological Determinism: Explaining Success and Failure in War”

"This brief, provocative, and accessible book offers snapshots of seven pernicious myths in military history that have been perpetrated on unsuspecting students, readers, moviegoers, game players, and politicians. It promotes awareness of how myths are created by 'the spurious misuse and ignorance of history' and how misleading ideas about a military problem, as in asymmetric warfare, can lead to misguided solutions. Both scholarly and engaging, this book is an ideal addition to military history and historical methodology courses. In fact, it could be fruitfully used in any course that teaches critical thinking skills, including courses outside the discipline of history. Military history has a broad appeal to students, and there's something here for everyone. From the so-called 'Western Way of War' to its sister-myth, technological determinism, to the 'academic party game' of once-faddish 'Military Revolutions,' the book shows that while myths about history may be fun, myth busting is the most fun of all." -- Reina Pennington, Norwich University

William James' review of "Rival in Arms"

Dr William James has written a review of Alice Pannier's Rivals in arms: the rise of UK–France defence relations in the twenty-first century. His review is published in International Affairs (Vol. 98, No. 2, March 2022).

 Extract

Publishing a book after 2016 that describes the Franco-British relationship as ‘special’ would likely be described by Yes Minister's Humphrey Appleby as ‘very courageous’. The United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union has already posed significant challenges for defence integration and industrial cooperation. For its part, France often took the hardest line during the negotiations, whether over satellites or fishing. Surely, then, cross-Channel tensions over Brexit have seeped into the bilateral relationship and jeopardized the nascent progress on defence cooperation? Not so, argues Alice Pannier in this important new study on the Franco-British alliance.

Former CCW Fellow publishes biography of Jake Wright

The gallant life of World War II hero ‘Jake’ Wright has just been published in a new biography by former Visiting Research Fellow, Captain Chris O’Flaherty, Royal Navy.  

Accompanying the restoration of Commander Derek ‘Jake’ Wright’s first command - Motor Torpedo Boat number 331 - Captain Chris was asked to research and capture the swashbuckling life of this gallant World War II warrior.  During twelve World War II motor torpedo boat actions in the North Sea, ‘Jake' Wright earned three Distinguished Service Crosses as well as a Mention in Despatches.  After demobilisation he went on to become Director of Global Tea Purchasing for Brooke Bond.  

As with all of Captain Chris’ books, all royalties for Torpedoes, Tea, and Medals go straight to charity; for this book all the proceeds are paid direct to the Coastal Forces Heritage Trust.

Torpedoes, Tea, and Medals: The Gallant Life of Commander D. G. H. 'Jake' Wright DSC**Royal Naval Volunteer Reserve is published by Casemate

Call for Papers: The Future of War Conference, Amsterdam (5-7 October 2022)

What does the future of war look like?

Proposals for panels and individual submissions are welcomed for The Future of War Conference. The conference will be held in Amsterdam on the 5-7 October 2022.

It is a joint initiative by The War Studies Research Centre (WSRC) of the Netherlands Defence Academy (NLDA) and The Changing Character of War Centre, University of Oxford. The initiative brings together academics and professionals from different disciplines and geographical backgrounds.

The organising committee, consisting of Tim Sweijs (Netherlands Defence Academy), Martijn Kitzen (Netherlands Defence Academy), and Rob Johnson (University of Oxford), welcomes proposals for panels and individual submissions on the following themes:

1. Imagining Future War and Warfare

2. Why We Fight and Who Does the Fighting?

3. The Essence of Force

4. The Meaning of Strategy and Victory

5. How We Fight: Military Strategy and Operations

6. The Future of Command

7. Preparing for War: Military Innovation and Defence Planning

Submission details: The committee invites you to submit your proposal before April 1, 2022 via warstudies@mindef.nl. Paper proposals should contain an abstract of no more than 250 words outlining the main arguments and contribution of the paper. Panel proposals (500 words maximum) elaborate the specific theme, its rationale, and the main questions to be addressed.

Further details about submission, descriptions, and guiding questions for papers and panels are provided in the document attached here.

Dr Todd Greentree publishes article: What Went Wrong in Afghanistan

Former CCW Visiting Research Fellow and Member of CCW, Dr Todd Greentree, has published a new article in the The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters.

The article in entitled “What Went Wrong in Afghanistan” and was published in Volume 51, Issue no. 4 (2021). Click here to read the article.

“Critics of the Afghan war have claimed it was always unwinnable. This article argues the war was unwinnable the way it was fought and posits an alternative based on the Afghan way of war and the US approach to counterinsurgency in El Salvador during the final decade of the Cold War. Respecting the political and military dictates of strategy could have made America’s longest foreign war unnecessary and is a warning for the wars we will fight in the future.”

Dr Todd Greentree is a former US foreign service officer, who served as a political-military officer in five conflicts, including El Salvador (1980–84) and Afghanistan (2008–12). He is a member of the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University and teaches in the Global and National Security Policy Institute at the University of New Mexico. His publications include Crossroads of Intervention: Insurgency and Counterinsurgency Lessons from Central America (2008) and numerous articles on Afghanistan published in the Journal of Strategic Studies, War on the Rocks, and elsewhere.

Book Launch: Solferino 21 - by Dr Hugo Slim

Dr Hugo Slim’s latest book will be released on the 27th of January 2022. The book is titled “Solferino 21: Warfare, Civilians and Humanitarians in the Twenty-First Century” and is being published by Hurst.

To mark the publication, Professor Dapo Akande will chair a panel to discuss what today’s changes in warfare mean for military ethics and humanitarian aid with Dr Hugo Slim, Sorcha O’Callaghan (Director of the Humanitarian Policy Group) and Professor David Whetham (Professor of Ethics and the Military Profession at King’s College London). The event will take place at the Blavatnik School of Government and via Zoom. The event is on Tuesday 22 February, 5-6pm. The event is free and open to the public.

Please see the Blavatnik School of Government’s event page for more details and to register to attend.

“War is at a tipping point: we’re passing from the age of industrial warfare to a new era of computerised warfare, and a renewed risk of great-power conflict. Humanitarian response is also evolving fast—‘big aid’ demands more and more money, while aid workers try to digitalise, preparing to meet ever-broader needs in the long, big wars and climate crisis of the future. 

This book draws on the founding moment of the modern Red Cross movement—the 1859 Battle of Solferino, a moment of great change in the nature of conflict—to track the big shifts already underway, and still to come, in the wars and war aid of our century. Hugo Slim first surveys the current landscape: the tech, politics, law and strategy of warfare, and the long-term transformations ahead as conflict goes digital. He then explains how civilians both suffer and survive in today’s wars, and how their world is changing. Finally, he critiques today’s humanitarian system, citing the challenges of the 2020s.   

Inspired by Henri Dunant’s seminal humanitarian text, Solferino 21 alerts policymakers to the coming shakeup of the military and aid professions, illuminating key priorities for the new century. Humanitarians, he warns, must adapt or fail.”

Dr Slim is a Senior Research Fellow at the Las Casas Institute for Social Justice, Blackfriars Hall, Oxford. He was previously a Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict, based at Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government.

The book is available for pre-order here.

Dr Melissa Skorka publishes Foreign Affairs article

Associate of CCW, Dr Melissa Skorka, has been published in Foreign Affairs. The article is titled “Afghanistan’s Most Dangerous Threat: Why America Can’t Take on the Haqqani Network Alone.”

The article looks at the resurgence of international terrorism and how the Haqqani network drives this. The Haqqani network is little-understood but the most powerful faction of the Taliban government that maintains ties to al Qaeda and to some elements of the Islamic State Khorasan (also known as ISIS-K).

So far, world leaders have failed to develop a coherent strategy to contain the Haqqanis.

Dr Skorka argues that even in minimal form, a multilateral approach among the United States, Russia, China, and other nations toward the Haqqanis in Afghanistan would do much to limit the expansion of ISIS-Khorasan and al Qaeda into the broader region and potentially stave off a devastating wave of destabilization from the new global terror threat. According to Western officials, the Haqqanis have already begun to focus on Tajikistan, Kashmir, Syria, and Yemen. The United States needs to take a more robust stand against Pakistan’s support for the terrorist syndicate.

Dr Skorka is an expert on Afghanistan and completed her DPhil at Oxford in 2019. At Oxford she worked on “the 21st Century Terrorist Political Adaptation to Western Policy.”

The article can be read here.

Dr Rob Johnson participates in AIIA Victoria's virtual conference "How Wars End"

The Australian Institute of International Affairs - Victoria has announced their virtual conference on “How Wars End.” The event is hosted by Professor Damien Kingsbury & Richard Iron CMG OBE.

The conference “draws on the direct experience of soldiers and specialist academics (some of whom have been both) who in each case have also been policy advisers on fighting and ending wars.”

The conference was originally planned to be in person in November 2021 but COVID-19 prevented this. The speakers have all pre-recorded their lectures which will be released from 25 January 2022 worldwide.

Dr Rob Johnson’s lecture addresses the typology of war, and how despite the existence of new actors, contexts, technologies, drivers, and other factors, power still remains the unifying element. His lecture comes under the first of the conference’s themes and so can be found in the first of the six recordings to be released.

More information about the conference, tickets, and how to listen to Dr Johnson and others is available on the Australian Institute of International Affairs - Victoria website and the event flyer available here.

Podcast Recordings from Last Term

Many of our Tuesday Lunchtime Seminars are recorded (thank you to our speakers for their permission). Those from last term are available in the following places:

  1. Our website. See the “Past Events” button on our “Events” page.

  2. Oxford Podcasts. See here for our channel page.

  3. Apple Podcasts. See here for our channel page.

Future recordings from the upcoming term will also be uploaded to these places.