Fascism’s Centennial Legacy by Scott Atran

Professor Scott Atran has written a paper on Fascism’s Centennial Legacy, with consideration to current western attitudes about democracy.

One hundred years ago, in late October 1922, Italian Fascists under the leadership of Benito Mussolini, a former socialist newspaper editor and politician, marched on Rome and onto the world stage. The goal was to make Italy and its capital great again, as under the Caesars. When the fascist supporters and Blackshirt militia entered the city, King Victor Emmanuel II, transferred power to Mussolini to avoid fascist promises of violence should rule be denied them. The New Order’s watchwords were “belief” and “obedience”: belief in fascism’s spiritual values, rooted in religious readiness to sacrifice the self for the Nation to save it both from the materialism of socialism’s egalitarian descent to mediocrity and from democracy’s apparent weakness, chaos and corruption; and obedience to the cult of the leader, Il Duce (or Der Fuehrer, El Caudillo, and the like), who alone could impart revolutionary enthusiasm to the people, imbuing them with the faith to overcome and even despise rational doubts, the country’s existing institutions, and the indiscipline of dissent that comes with disbelief…..

New Bibliography on the Governance of the Arctic

CCW Research Fellow, Steve Coulson, has produced an updated OUP bibliography on The Governance of the Arctic, together with Corinne Wood-Donnelly.

Developed cooperatively with scholars and librarians worldwide, Oxford Bibliographies offers exclusive, authoritative research guides across a variety of subject areas. Combining the best features of an annotated bibliography and a high-level encyclopedia, this cutting-edge resource directs researchers to the best available scholarship across a wide variety of subjects.

New CCW seminar series on the nature & character of US-UK relations

The withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer was regarded in some quarters as a watershed moment in US-UK relations. For some senior Conservative politicians, the debacle signalled a “demise” in the partnership and the “biggest foreign policy disaster” since the Suez Crisis of 1956. Yet the UK-US alliance has long been a story of episodic peaks and troughs. Indeed, despite these grim auguries made in August 2021, the AUKUS agreement was signed just a month later. This case illustrates the need for deeper, historically informed research about the nature and character of US-UK strategic relations.

To that end, the Oxford Changing Character of War Centre and the Corbett Centre for Maritime Policy Studies of King’s College London have co-organised a series of public seminars to study the different facets of the relationship. Invited speakers will present research papers, which speak to areas of cooperation and tension. The seminars will be held biweekly during the 2022/23 academic year at 17.15 in All Souls College, Oxford. We intend this project to be several years in duration, targeting specific themes (e.g., military-to-military cooperation) to the role of big ideas such as Atlanticism or declinism. Part of our goal is to avoid the usual cases that are cited, such as the Suez Crisis or the 2003 Iraq War, and focus on understudied elements and examples of US-UK strategic relations.

 All are welcome to attend. The line-up for Michaelmas term 2022 is as follows:

 Wednesday, 12 October 2022
‘Anglo-American clandestine cooperation: the past, present and future of the Special Intelligence Relationship’
Dr Thomas Maguire (Leiden University) and Dr David V. Gioe (King’s College London and West Point)

 Wednesday, 26 October 2022
‘The United States, the United Kingdom and the international financial system since 1945’
Dr Michael Hopkins (University of Liverpool)

Wednesday, 9 November 2022
‘An Exceptional Relationship? US nuclear strategy and the US-UK Nuclear Relationship’
Dr Suzanne Doyle (University of East Anglia)

Wednesday, 23 November 2022
Theme: TBD
Dr Kristin Cook (SOAS)

If you are interested in presenting a paper in future, please contact Dr William James (william.james@pmb.ox.ac.uk) and Professor Greg Kennedy (greg.kennedy@kcl.ac.uk).

The future of war: embrace the new, remember the old - book review by Dr Rob Johnson in Engelsberg Ideas

Dr Rob Johnson has written a review of Mick Ryan’s recent book, War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, that has been published by Engelsberg Ideas.

“There’s no template for modern warfare, but Mick Ryan combines both his professional experience and his extensive historical knowledge to present us with a vision of human unity over technology and argues the case for rapid agility and adaptation in wartime.”

War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict by Mick Ryan. Naval Institute Press, 2022, 312 pages, hardback £41.95.

Programme for NLDA-CCW Future of War Conference Announced

The Draft Programme for the Future of War Conference has been announced. The Conference is organised in collaboration between The War Studies Research Centre (WSRC) of the Netherlands Defence Academy (NLDA) and The Changing Character of War Centre, University of Oxford.

The Director of CCW, Dr Rob Johnson, is chairing two panels: “Predicting the Future: Perils, Promises and Pitfalls” and “Shaping Future Wars.” He is also speaking on a roundtable discussion entitled “The Future of Net Assessment: Lessons from the Past, Insights for the Future.”

CCW Research Fellow, Dr Will James is also speaking, first on “In Search of the Holy Grail: The Quest to Define Grand Strategy” and then on “A Tokenistic Tilt? Evaluating the Use of “Penny Packets” in British Defence Strategy.”

Many other CCW associates and former Visiting Research Fellows will also be speaking, including Julia Carver, Raja Gundu, and Milo Jones.

NATO in 2022-23: A new era? - Report

NATO in 2022-23: A new era?

On 24 May, CCW brought together experts from the Oxford area and further afield to discuss the future of NATO and Europe’s security architecture in light of the intensification of the war in Ukraine. The seminar was chaired by Dr William James (CCW) and began with short briefings from Will Evans (FCDO), Ian Bond (Centre for European Reform), Professor Neil MacFarlane (Oxford DPIR), Leanne Iorio (Oxford DPIR), and Julia Carver (Oxford DPIR).

Russia’s invasion has upended many assumptions about the European order and forced questions about the suitability of existing frameworks and mechanisms for security cooperation. The transatlantic alliance is in a period of transition, which carries both opportunities and dangers. NATO will adopt a new Strategic Concept in Madrid this month, while Finland and Sweden have recently submitted membership applications. In the near future, the alliance will also select a new secretary general to replace Jens Stoltenberg, the longest serving occupant in the post-Cold War era.  

Prior to the Russian invasion, NATO faced several fundamental questions about its future. Would the US ‘pivot’ towards the Indo-Pacific come at the expense of its commitment to European security? What role does the alliance have in responding to China’s growing assertiveness? How might American policy towards NATO shift if Donald Trump or one of his disciples wins the US presidential election in 2024? How could NATO recast its relationship with an increasingly ambitious European Union? Is the alliance willing and able to adjust to unconventional security challenges that increasingly impact its members like pandemics, disinformation campaigns, or the security consequences of climate change?  

Participants were encouraged to place this inflection point in historical context. A variety of topics were covered in the group discussion, including: the sustainability of the US commitment to Europe; the politics of German defence spending; the priorities of the new Strategic Concept; areas for NATO-EU collaboration, notably in the cyber domain; the Russian perspective; the efficacy of western sanctions; the role of maritime power in NATO’s deterrence strategies; and the early lessons that are being drawn from the war in Ukraine.

Thank you to all of our speakers and participants for such an excellent discussion.

Rob Johnson publishes article in Parameters

Dr Rob Johnson has had an article published in the US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters.

“Dysfunctional Warfare: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was based on false premises, faulty assumptions, and a weak strategy. The conduct of operations has also been a failure: a coup de main that miscarried, poor air-land cooperation, inadequate tactical communications, substandard battle discipline, low morale, and vulnerable and weak logistics. As the conflict has unfolded, heavy losses have imposed a strain on available Russian manpower. The Russian army reached a culminating point outside Kyiv and has exhibited little sign of operational learning. By contrast Ukrainians have fought an existential war, making good use of dispersed light infantry tactics with high levels of motivation. Their deficiencies in armaments and munitions have been compensated by Western support. However, the political context continues to impose limitations on the Ukrainians, and, at this early stage of the conflict, the number of options remains constrained.

Rob Johnson and Andrew Livsey speaking at Corbett 100 Conference

Dr Rob Johnson, Director of CCW, and Cdr Andrew Livsey, Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and Visiting Research Fellow at CCW, will both be speaking at the Corbett 100 Conference.

The conference is taking place on the 25th and 26th of May 2022 at KCL. It is bringing together scholars, military personnel (serving and retired), and policy makers to mark the centenary of the death of Sir Julian Corbett.

“The conference explores the life of Sir Julian and his scholarship on maritime strategy and naval history. The conference will discuss his enduring relevance to contemporary strategy, strategic studies and defence policy and why he remains one of the ‘great’ strategic theorists amongst contemporaries such as Carl Von Clausewitz.”

Rob Johnson will be speaking on Day 1 on the topic of ‘Soldiers and Maritime Strategy’.

Andrew Livsey will be speaking on Day 2 on the topic of 'The Royal Navy and Corbett 1990-2020’.

See here for the full list of speakers and their topics and here to read more about the Corbett 100 Project.

Commander Andrew Livsey publishes article in the Wavell Room

Cdr Andrew Livsey, Royal Navy Hudson Fellow at St Anthony’s and Visiting Research Fellow at CCW, has published an article in the Wavell Room.

The article is titled “The Constant Struggle At Sea: Attacking And Protecting Shipping” and looks at how and why navies act to protect or obstruct shipping every day, even during times of peace. The present situation facing Ukraine, which has been entirely cut off from the seas, is assessed first, followed by the potential situation in a war involving China and Taiwan. The article ends with an analysis of why this aspect of conflict is too often ignored.

The article can be read here.

Rob Johnson quoted in Times article

Dr Rob Johnson has been quoted in a Times article on “Russian arms failings good for British sales.”

Dr Johnson states that the poor performance of Russian military equipment could force other states to re-reassess their defence contracts. In turn, this would give Britain an opportunity to pitch weapons and equipment to states that wanted to replace their Soviet-era equipment. India is a key potential customer.

The article also gives more insight into Dr Johnson’s new role as Director of the Secretary of State’s Office for Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC). The new Office will scrutinise government strategy and provide “independent, impartial analysis for defence chiefs and ministers.” Ben Wallace, defence secretary, said: “Defence leaders must be open to scrutiny and constructive criticism if we are to avoid failure on the battlefield.”

The article can be read here.

Dr Rob Johnson appointed Director of SONAC

CCW is pleased to announce that the Director, Dr Rob Johnson, has been appointed as Director of the Secretary of State for Defence’s Office of Net Assessment and Challenge.

Net assessment was developed in the United States and was associated for decades with Andrew Marshall where it focussed on the relative strengths of competitive powers, but it was in 2018 that the UK Ministry of Defence set up its own experimental Strategic Net Assessment unit. In December 2020, the current Secretary of State, the Rt Hon Ben Wallace, developed the idea with a specific ‘challenge’ function, and the office was more firmly established with the assistance of Air Marshal Edward Stringer who was Director General of the Defence Academy and Joint Force Development. The Integrated Review of 2021 further endorsed the requirement for a SONAC, not only for Defence, but to facilitate cross-government working. One of the tasks of the new organisation is to bring challenging, external voices to bear on strategic thinking and to ‘speak truth to power’. Dr Johnson has been regarded as a ‘critical friend’ of defence personnel for some years, offering robust analyses and hard truths. He has specialised in ensuring that there is a thorough consideration of the perspective of the ‘Other Side of the Hill’, to quote the Duke of Wellington, and he has championed rigorous research in the study of conflict in international relations. He has been a strong advocate of red teaming and policy simulation, to expose the weaknesses in assumptions and approaches, under- and overestimations of competitors, and failures to appreciate valid external perspectives. He will lead the Office of Net Assessment using this experience.

Dr Johnson’s appointment is for 2 years. He will remain a Senior Research Fellow of Pembroke College and Director of CCW.

The Changing Character of War Centre at Pembroke College will continue. Indeed, it will be a vital academic reach-back facility for the SONAC, along with a collection of other research centres across the UK and overseas.

Rob Johnson writes article on war and human behaviour

Rob Johnson has written a second essay published by Engelsberg Ideas Notebook. The article is entitled “Human behaviour will still determine who wins wars” and argues that digitalised defence systems and new technology are important, but they do not eliminate the age old realities of warfare.

“Above all, war is more than battles and operations. Regardless of the technology, it is, as Thucydides reminds us, the human aspects that matter most. If the public embrace the desire to fight to survive, are willing to endure and sacrifice, then systems will become less important. Even where superior and overwhelming firepower is employed, if a population refuses to submit, they will endure defeats in battle and keep fighting. Multi-domain integration determines only how to fight; it will not necessarily determine who wins wars.”

Click here to read the essay.

Iacovos Kareklas - "Thucydides on International Law and Political Theory"

This week, CCW hosted Dr Iacovos Kareklas, a current Visiting Resarch Fellow at CCW, to celebrate his recent book, Thucydides on International Law and Political Theory.

Iacovos spoke on his research for the book and the key conclusions, arguing that even the great powers of the ancient world, namely the Greek city states of Athens and Sparta, did acknowledge early forms of international law and concepts of morality and just war. It is a refreshing and engaging look at at topic which is too often reduced to the concept of the “Thucydides Trap.”

Iacovos’s talk was followed by discussion from Fellows and colleagues from CCW, Pembroke College, and the wider University.

Thucydides on International Law and Political Theory (2020) is published by Lexington Books.

A short description of the book can be read below:

Thucydides on International Law and Political Theory demonstrates that in classical times, especially in the era of the Peloponnesian War, international law and strategy existed in an advanced form among the city-states of ancient Greece. It shows how the work of Thucydides and classical Greek international law and politics have influenced aspects of modern international law and international politics. Iacovos Kareklas extensively analyzes Thucydidean political realism and indicates how it differs from modern realist and neo-realist theories of politics and presents that the “just war” theory of Thucydides’s time formed the legal and political basis of contemporary kinds of military intervention. Further, interstate treaties as listed in the work of Thucydides are categorized, interpreted, and commented upon. The military strategy of classical Greece and the role of religion in foreign policy decision making are also emphasized.

Annual Lecture 2022

Last week CCW hosted our 2022 Annual Lecture. We were delighted to have The Hon George Brandis QC, Australian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, speak on “Indo-Pacific Cohesion: AUKUS and Australian National Security Strategy in the 2020s.”

Mr Brandis, in the last week of his role as High Commissioner, reflected on key moments in his career and his view of the current international security situation. It was a very thoughtful and engaging talk - our thanks again to the High Commissioner.

It was great to see so many there and we enjoyed the occasion to gather together the wider CCW network.

Mr Brandis has had a distinguished career in law and politics in Australia. A barrister by profession, he served as a Senator in the Australian Parliament for 18 years. He was a Minister in the Governments of John Howard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. His ministerial appointments included Minister for the Arts, Attorney-General, Vice-President of the Executive Council and Leader of the Government in the Senate. As Attorney-General, he was responsible for the reform of Australia’s espionage and foreign interference laws, and played a leading role in the introduction of marriage equality in Australia in 2017.

Rob Johnson publishes essay with Engelsberg Ideas on Russian military dysfunction

Ukraine is the latest disaster in a long history of Russian military dysfunction.

The Russian army has had its fair share of military disasters with its most recent in Ukraine being a clear product of a system that refuses to accept the truth and only deals in exercising unlimited power.

—-

This latest essay by Rob Johnson looks at what has gone wrong for the Russian army in Ukraine and the historical roots and patterns of these failures. The essay looks at the potential for a long-term stalemate as seen in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine previously and the historic precedents for high Russian casualties. The essay ends with an assessment that the institutionalised and endemic bullying, corruption, lack of accountability, and unwillingness for self-critique, will offer few opportunities for improving this military dysfunction. However, Russian military failures and ongoing dysfunction should not be viewed with optimism, given the state’s nuclear capabilities and the absolutist outlook of its leader.

You can read the essay here, and many more excellent pieces of work in the Engelsberg Ideas notebook here.

Rob Johnson writes essay on "The Second Phase Of The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine 2022"

Dr Rob Johnson has written a second essay, following on from that published a few weeks ago, on the invasion of Ukraine. The essay looks at the slowing Russian advance, the increasing Russian casualties, and the attacks on Ukrainian civilians. The international response is also assessed, particularly Europe’s difficulty in fully divesting from Russian oil and gas supplies. The essay ends by looking at potential outcomes, including “a new Cold War” and what Russia’s stated objective of ushering in a multipolar world would mean for the international order.

Rob Johnson writes essay on "The First Phase of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022"

Dr Rob Johnson has written an essay examining the the ongoing military invasion of Ukraine. The essay details the build up, Russian plans for the invasion, the first and second operational phases, and the calculations being made by Russia, the West, and China. The essay ends with an assessment of the changing character of the war and how the war might evolve in the coming weeks and months.

An extended analysis of the war by Rob will be published in May by the journal Parameters.

 
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