Will James on "Assessing the Royal Navy’s presence in the Indo-Pacific"

Tailored, tokenistic, or too much? Assessing the Royal Navy’s presence in the Indo-Pacific

Dr William D James has published an article with the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.

The war in Ukraine has raised fresh doubts over the will and ability of European states to play a meaningful role in the Indo-Pacific. In the United Kingdom, there is a lively debate over the utility of its ‘tilt’ to the region, first announced in the 2021 Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy. The defence component of this policy, which largely comes under the purview of the Royal Navy, has come under sustained flak from two sides. Some dismiss the tilt as tokenistic, a gesture strategy, and ask why the UK should invest scarce resources in a region so far from home? While others worry that it will distort the UK’s armed forces at a time when core interests in Europe are under threat, in some quarters this tilt is seen as a case of post-Brexit hubris.

This paper by William D. James explores the rationale and efficacy of small or token defence deployments – with a specific focus on the defence component of the Indo-Pacific tilt. Its arguments challenge the assumption that tokenistic deployments are always a strategically unsound idea. This paper argues that the naval effort in the Indo-Pacific – as currently constituted – will not cause undue strain on the UK’s broader defence efforts in the Euro-Atlantic. Furthermore, and contrary to conventional wisdom, it argues that tokenistic naval deployments can be worthwhile – so long as the objectives are clear, expectations are managed, and they are integrated with allied and partner navies. Finally, the paper offers three recommendations for the Ministry of Defence to better tailor its contribution to the tilt, namely: (1) Enhancing coordination with Europe’s naval powers, principally France; (2) narrowing the geographical and operational scope of naval activity in the Indo-Pacific; and (3) taking a more holistic approach to communications.

Author: Dr. William D. James is an Ax:son Johnson Research Fellow in the Centre for Grand Strategy at King’s College London and a Senior Associate of the Oxford Changing Character of War Centre.

Rob Johnson on "The Russian War against Ukraine"

Marking a year since the start of the current Russia assault in Ukraine, Dr Rob Johnson has written an article as part of the University of Oxford’s “Expert Comment” series.

The Russian War against Ukraine: Retrospect and Prospect

Understanding the decision calculus of President Putin that led to his war against Ukraine, and his plans for the next few months and years, is challenging. Yet, to aid us, we can refer to the pattern of his behaviour, the statements he has made, and the sorts of individuals he has surrounded himself with.

House of Lords interview with Lord Alderdice

Watch Lord John Alderdice talk as part of a series of interviews between the Lord Speaker, Lord McFall of Alcluith, and members of the House of Lords.

In this episode, the Lord Speaker asks Lord Alderdice what influenced his work as a psychiatrist and former Speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly. They also discuss the importance of engaging with multiple perspectives, what inspires Lord Alderdice's work on conflict and peacebuilding, plus his experience working to set up the Assembly and its surprising influences from the House of Lords.

Find out more about the series, including a longer podcast version of the interview:

Podcast with Antulio Echevarria on Jomini

Professor Antulio Echevarria (CCW Visiting Research Fellow) has featured on the RUSI podcast, Talking Strategy.

Episode 1: Jomini: Selling Napoleon’s System

Antoine-Henri Jomini was the strategist who anticipated Napoleon’s movements – and the general who betrayed the emperor by defecting to the Russians for a better position. He was among the most widely read strategists of land warfare in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. To kick off Season 3 of Talking Strategy, Beatrice Heuser and Paul O’Neill are joined by Professor Antulio Echevarria to reflect on his work.

The Talking Strategy podcast is run by Paul O'Neill, a former Visiting Fellow of CCW.

"Securing the State and its Citizens" by Paul O'Neil

Paul O'Neill has published an edited volume with Bloomsbury: Securing the State and its Citizens: National Security Councils from Around the World.

Through a uniquely extensive study of countries from across the world, this book considers how nations have developed bespoke coordination mechanisms to the unique threats they face, and how these mechanisms have had to evolve as the threats change. It covers nations for whom the system is well established (e.g. the US in 1947) and other countries whose arrangements are more recent, such as the UK (2010). Where the National Security Councils have existed for longest, the case studies highlight how they have transformed as the national understanding of security has changed, typically to reflect a broadening. Consequently, while there are no universal solutions, the comparative approach taken in this book identifies enduring principles for shaping the creation or reform of national security coordination fit for the challenges of the twenty-first century.

Paul O'Neill is a former CCW Visiting Fellow. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Military Sciences at RUSI with research interests in organisational aspects of security and Defence including organisational design and decision making. Previously, a senior Royal Air Force officer working in strategy and human resources roles across Defence including in Whitehall. He led the military team in Defence Strategy and Priorities during the 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review.

Hubert Annen on identifying military core values

Hubert Annen has co-authored an article for Military Psychology.

Nadine Eggimann Zanetti, Willibald Ruch & Hubert Annen,The utility of the psycholexical approach for identifying military core values: Illustrated in a sample of Swiss career officers and NCOs”

Abstract: Values have always been a top priority in the military domains of leadership, training, ethical commitment, and psychological research. However, only a few studies have assessed value descriptors and their underlying dimensional structure in military organizations using an empirical psycholexical and factor analytical approach. This research project examined the structure of military values and derived core military values. Two studies were conducted in cooperation with the Swiss Armed Forces. In study 1, 25 military-specific value descriptors were identified based on a psycholexical analysis of military guidelines and in line with expert ratings by executive military leaders. In study 2, a questionnaire was filled out by a sample of 550 military professionals to capture their ratings of values as applied to everyday military decisions and actions. Principal component analysis in combination with Goldberg’s top-down approach delivered five military value categories that reflect the military culture in Switzerland, characterized as (I) freedom, (II) social cohesion, (III) good soldiership, (IV) mutual respect, and (V) military conformity. Results are discussed in light of introducing a novel research approach to assessing the value structure and culture in military organizations.

Hubert Annen on Effects of resilience training in military officer cadets

Hubert Annen (CCW Visiting Research Fellow) has co-authored an article in Military Psychology.

Regula Zueger, Madlaina Niederhauser, Chantal Utzinger, Hubert Anne, Ulrike Ehlert, “Effects of resilience training on mental, emotional, and physical stress outcomes in military officer cadets” is available online.

ABSTRACT

Resilience is an important factor in counteracting the harmful effects of stress and is associated with healthy physiological and psychological responses to stress. Previous research has demonstrated the effectiveness of resilience fostering training programs in psychobiological stress response and recovery. Few studies, however, have examined training effects in real-life high-stress situations. In this study, we compare effects of a brief resilience training (RT) and an active control training in diversity management (DMT) on psychobiological stress response to and recovery from an intense military exercise of 81 male officer cadets. Five weeks after training completion, autonomic, endocrine, and subjective state measures of cadets were measured while undergoing stressful military exercise. The RT group perceived the military stressor as more challenging, and showed higher values in motivation and positive affect than the DMT group. Cortisol increased in both groups during stress, but showed a lower cortisol increase in the RT group thereafter. These results suggest that this brief resilience training helped cadets reframe the stressful situation in a more positive light, experiencing more positive emotions, and recovering faster from stress. To strengthen young military leaders in stressful situations, resilience promoting programs should become part of basic or leadership trainings.

Lord John Alderdice receives Lifetime Achievement Award from the Royal College of Psychiatrists

Lord John Alderdice has been awarded the prestigious Lifetime Achievement Award from the Royal College of Psychiatrists during their annual awards ceremony.  The awards mark the highest levels of excellence and achievement within the field of psychiatry.

Lord Alderdice was born and brought up in Northern Ireland and played a vital role in helping to resolve conflict and restore peace during the Troubles. In 1978, he joined the Alliance party which tried to build the centre ground. In 1987 at the age of 32, he was elected leader of the Alliance Party.

He engaged in ongoing talks including with the prime ministers of the UK and Ireland and leaders of the EU and the President of the USA, that culminated in the Good Friday Agreement in Belfast in 1998. 

In his psychiatry career, he was appointed to professorships at the University of San Marcos in Peru and at the Universities of Virginia and Maryland in the USA. He currently holds appointments at Oxford University, including Senior Research Fellow at Harris Manchester College and Executive Chairman of The Changing Character of War Centre at Pembroke College. 

He is a professor of practice at the Global Humanity for Peace Institute at the University of Wales Trinity Saint David.

Lord John Alderdice said: “This award is a demonstration of the good fortune I have had in my professional life to be encouraged by colleagues in psychiatry who care both about their patients, and the disturbed societies in which they live.  The mental health professionals that I worked with in Northern Ireland, and later around the world, gave me the intellectual, emotional, and collegial support that I needed to work in situations of conflict. I want them and others to know that they should never underestimate the impact and importance of encouragement, especially to a young person trying to do the best they can for others.”

Dr Adrian James, president of the Royal College of Psychiatrists, said: “If anyone deserves a lifetime achievement award, it is Lord John Alderdice. He has devoted so much of his working life to politics and psychiatry. Not only was he an ambassador for peace and conflict resolution during turbulent times in Northern Ireland but he is a focused and world-leading psychiatrist at the top of his profession. It is wonderful to be able to recognise him through this award.”

Dr Richard Wilson, chair of RCPsych NI, said: "Many congratulations to Lord John Alderdice on this much deserved award. Not only has he been an important political figure in Northern Ireland, but he continues to be a leading light in the world of psychiatry. This accolade is a true testament to an interesting and much varied career."

Fascism’s Centennial Legacy by Scott Atran

Professor Scott Atran has written a paper on Fascism’s Centennial Legacy, with consideration to current western attitudes about democracy.

One hundred years ago, in late October 1922, Italian Fascists under the leadership of Benito Mussolini, a former socialist newspaper editor and politician, marched on Rome and onto the world stage. The goal was to make Italy and its capital great again, as under the Caesars. When the fascist supporters and Blackshirt militia entered the city, King Victor Emmanuel II, transferred power to Mussolini to avoid fascist promises of violence should rule be denied them. The New Order’s watchwords were “belief” and “obedience”: belief in fascism’s spiritual values, rooted in religious readiness to sacrifice the self for the Nation to save it both from the materialism of socialism’s egalitarian descent to mediocrity and from democracy’s apparent weakness, chaos and corruption; and obedience to the cult of the leader, Il Duce (or Der Fuehrer, El Caudillo, and the like), who alone could impart revolutionary enthusiasm to the people, imbuing them with the faith to overcome and even despise rational doubts, the country’s existing institutions, and the indiscipline of dissent that comes with disbelief…..

New Bibliography on the Governance of the Arctic

CCW Research Fellow, Steve Coulson, has produced an updated OUP bibliography on The Governance of the Arctic, together with Corinne Wood-Donnelly.

Developed cooperatively with scholars and librarians worldwide, Oxford Bibliographies offers exclusive, authoritative research guides across a variety of subject areas. Combining the best features of an annotated bibliography and a high-level encyclopedia, this cutting-edge resource directs researchers to the best available scholarship across a wide variety of subjects.

New CCW seminar series on the nature & character of US-UK relations

The withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer was regarded in some quarters as a watershed moment in US-UK relations. For some senior Conservative politicians, the debacle signalled a “demise” in the partnership and the “biggest foreign policy disaster” since the Suez Crisis of 1956. Yet the UK-US alliance has long been a story of episodic peaks and troughs. Indeed, despite these grim auguries made in August 2021, the AUKUS agreement was signed just a month later. This case illustrates the need for deeper, historically informed research about the nature and character of US-UK strategic relations.

To that end, the Oxford Changing Character of War Centre and the Corbett Centre for Maritime Policy Studies of King’s College London have co-organised a series of public seminars to study the different facets of the relationship. Invited speakers will present research papers, which speak to areas of cooperation and tension. The seminars will be held biweekly during the 2022/23 academic year at 17.15 in All Souls College, Oxford. We intend this project to be several years in duration, targeting specific themes (e.g., military-to-military cooperation) to the role of big ideas such as Atlanticism or declinism. Part of our goal is to avoid the usual cases that are cited, such as the Suez Crisis or the 2003 Iraq War, and focus on understudied elements and examples of US-UK strategic relations.

 All are welcome to attend. The line-up for Michaelmas term 2022 is as follows:

 Wednesday, 12 October 2022
‘Anglo-American clandestine cooperation: the past, present and future of the Special Intelligence Relationship’
Dr Thomas Maguire (Leiden University) and Dr David V. Gioe (King’s College London and West Point)

 Wednesday, 26 October 2022
‘The United States, the United Kingdom and the international financial system since 1945’
Dr Michael Hopkins (University of Liverpool)

Wednesday, 9 November 2022
‘An Exceptional Relationship? US nuclear strategy and the US-UK Nuclear Relationship’
Dr Suzanne Doyle (University of East Anglia)

Wednesday, 23 November 2022
Theme: TBD
Dr Kristin Cook (SOAS)

If you are interested in presenting a paper in future, please contact Dr William James (william.james@pmb.ox.ac.uk) and Professor Greg Kennedy (greg.kennedy@kcl.ac.uk).

The future of war: embrace the new, remember the old - book review by Dr Rob Johnson in Engelsberg Ideas

Dr Rob Johnson has written a review of Mick Ryan’s recent book, War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, that has been published by Engelsberg Ideas.

“There’s no template for modern warfare, but Mick Ryan combines both his professional experience and his extensive historical knowledge to present us with a vision of human unity over technology and argues the case for rapid agility and adaptation in wartime.”

War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict by Mick Ryan. Naval Institute Press, 2022, 312 pages, hardback £41.95.

Programme for NLDA-CCW Future of War Conference Announced

The Draft Programme for the Future of War Conference has been announced. The Conference is organised in collaboration between The War Studies Research Centre (WSRC) of the Netherlands Defence Academy (NLDA) and The Changing Character of War Centre, University of Oxford.

The Director of CCW, Dr Rob Johnson, is chairing two panels: “Predicting the Future: Perils, Promises and Pitfalls” and “Shaping Future Wars.” He is also speaking on a roundtable discussion entitled “The Future of Net Assessment: Lessons from the Past, Insights for the Future.”

CCW Research Fellow, Dr Will James is also speaking, first on “In Search of the Holy Grail: The Quest to Define Grand Strategy” and then on “A Tokenistic Tilt? Evaluating the Use of “Penny Packets” in British Defence Strategy.”

Many other CCW associates and former Visiting Research Fellows will also be speaking, including Julia Carver, Raja Gundu, and Milo Jones.

NATO in 2022-23: A new era? - Report

NATO in 2022-23: A new era?

On 24 May, CCW brought together experts from the Oxford area and further afield to discuss the future of NATO and Europe’s security architecture in light of the intensification of the war in Ukraine. The seminar was chaired by Dr William James (CCW) and began with short briefings from Will Evans (FCDO), Ian Bond (Centre for European Reform), Professor Neil MacFarlane (Oxford DPIR), Leanne Iorio (Oxford DPIR), and Julia Carver (Oxford DPIR).

Russia’s invasion has upended many assumptions about the European order and forced questions about the suitability of existing frameworks and mechanisms for security cooperation. The transatlantic alliance is in a period of transition, which carries both opportunities and dangers. NATO will adopt a new Strategic Concept in Madrid this month, while Finland and Sweden have recently submitted membership applications. In the near future, the alliance will also select a new secretary general to replace Jens Stoltenberg, the longest serving occupant in the post-Cold War era.  

Prior to the Russian invasion, NATO faced several fundamental questions about its future. Would the US ‘pivot’ towards the Indo-Pacific come at the expense of its commitment to European security? What role does the alliance have in responding to China’s growing assertiveness? How might American policy towards NATO shift if Donald Trump or one of his disciples wins the US presidential election in 2024? How could NATO recast its relationship with an increasingly ambitious European Union? Is the alliance willing and able to adjust to unconventional security challenges that increasingly impact its members like pandemics, disinformation campaigns, or the security consequences of climate change?  

Participants were encouraged to place this inflection point in historical context. A variety of topics were covered in the group discussion, including: the sustainability of the US commitment to Europe; the politics of German defence spending; the priorities of the new Strategic Concept; areas for NATO-EU collaboration, notably in the cyber domain; the Russian perspective; the efficacy of western sanctions; the role of maritime power in NATO’s deterrence strategies; and the early lessons that are being drawn from the war in Ukraine.

Thank you to all of our speakers and participants for such an excellent discussion.

Rob Johnson publishes article in Parameters

Dr Rob Johnson has had an article published in the US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters.

Dysfunctional Warfare: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was based on false premises, faulty assumptions, and a weak strategy. The conduct of operations has also been a failure: a coup de main that miscarried, poor air-land cooperation, inadequate tactical communications, substandard battle discipline, low morale, and vulnerable and weak logistics. As the conflict has unfolded, heavy losses have imposed a strain on available Russian manpower. The Russian army reached a culminating point outside Kyiv and has exhibited little sign of operational learning. By contrast Ukrainians have fought an existential war, making good use of dispersed light infantry tactics with high levels of motivation. Their deficiencies in armaments and munitions have been compensated by Western support. However, the political context continues to impose limitations on the Ukrainians, and, at this early stage of the conflict, the number of options remains constrained.

Rob Johnson and Andrew Livsey speaking at Corbett 100 Conference

Dr Rob Johnson, Director of CCW, and Cdr Andrew Livsey, Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and Visiting Research Fellow at CCW, will both be speaking at the Corbett 100 Conference.

The conference is taking place on the 25th and 26th of May 2022 at KCL. It is bringing together scholars, military personnel (serving and retired), and policy makers to mark the centenary of the death of Sir Julian Corbett.

“The conference explores the life of Sir Julian and his scholarship on maritime strategy and naval history. The conference will discuss his enduring relevance to contemporary strategy, strategic studies and defence policy and why he remains one of the ‘great’ strategic theorists amongst contemporaries such as Carl Von Clausewitz.”

Rob Johnson will be speaking on Day 1 on the topic of Soldiers and Maritime Strategy’.

Andrew Livsey will be speaking on Day 2 on the topic of 'The Royal Navy and Corbett 1990-2020’.

See here for the full list of speakers and their topics and here to read more about the Corbett 100 Project.